This is a re-posting of an article from nearly five years ago.  I still believe that most of us still uphold the ideals of inclusion and advancement of Humanity.  However, the rift is wider now and the extremists at both ends of the spectrum are more vocal...and influential now.  I will be exploring the forces at play here in more depth going forward.  I ask everyone out there to think deeply and carefully about the decisions we are about to make as we may be deciding on the very existence of our amazing but sadly self-destructive species...

Is America Really Polarized?

If you believe the current media, the American people are irreversibly polarized into two vastly different camps.  One camp consists of conservative Americans who embrace the Republicans and the Tea Party.  The second camp consists of liberals who embrace the Democrats and the Occupy Wall Street movement.  We hear contention on the streets, at work, at home, and in the social media where the two views are debated in the hopes that one person will gain a personal victory and convert the other person over to their view.  In observing this, I have to question what has happened to the Center, the moderates who tend the middle ground and attempt to keep the extremes from fracturing our country and even our society.

As it turns out, the American people themselves have not become more polarized.  Lane Kenworthy shows data that over the past 35 years, Americans’ political views fall along a normal distribution with the mean at the center and that the majority of the so-called red and blue states are really “purple states.”  [1]  Polarization is actually a phenomenon happening in American Politics, where the two parties have drifted far apart with no middle ground.  So if the average American is centrist, why isn’t our government?

Well it turns out the political party system is actually structured in a fashion that favors the vocal minorities over the less vocal majorities.  Fareed Zakaria of CNN cites several reasons that allow minority interests to dominate the two parties:  [2]

1.   Gerrymandering has created safe seats, where the incumbent only has to worry about a primary candidate running against them that is more, not less extreme.

2.   Small groups of activists can petition to take even a popular candidate off a primary ballot.  For example, in Utah, 3,500 conservative activists managed to get the highly regarded Senator Robert Bennett removed from the ballot.  This forces incumbents to take even more radical stands to stave off such assaults.

3.   “Sunshine Rules,” which have forced openness in Congress, have made it more difficult to enact large compromise legislation.  Politician’s actions are transparent to everyone, which may affect their reelection, so they take the easy way out and vote the party line.

4    A new media contributes to the polarization through “narrowcasting,” or disseminating information to a narrow audience.

Mickey Edwards, a former Oklahoma congressman, writes “Party activists control access to the ballot through closed party primaries and conventions; partisan leaders design congressional districts. Once elected to Congress, our representatives are divided into warring camps. Partisans decide what bills to take up, what witnesses to hear, what amendments to allow.”  [3]  And there is no meeting in the middle in order to solve problems: “Ours is a system focused not on collective problem-solving but on a struggle for power between two private organizations.”  [4]  Finally, the current political climate punishes those who try to bridge the gap.  Zakaria shares a story where California Representative Darrell Issa gave an interview to the Wall Street Journal suggesting that the conservative agenda would be furthered through occasional compromise.  Rush Limbaugh lambasted him on his show, which created a flood of angry responses to Issa’s office.  It forced Issa to apologize to Limbaugh and promise “only opposition to Obama.”

So compromising to the center is a dangerous stand for politicians, especially those who intend on making a career of it.   Reports the Toronto Globe and Mail, which discusses how the Tea Party and Occupy Wall Street movements have further polarized the two parties: “More and more, it looks like the centre will be an orphan in 2012.”  [5]  As the parties continue to drift apart and fortify their trenches for 2012, what about the majority of Americans in the middle of the political spectrum?

The polarization of the parties has forced the moderate majority to choose between the parties, and according to Kenworthy, “sort themselves more accurately against the party platforms.”  [6]  The problem with this choice is that moderates have to make substantial compromises to their own views when they step into the voting booth.  Ideally, a third party representing the moderates would provide a check and balance against the current two-party system, but historically it has been very difficult for a third party to launch and, even if an independent candidate manages to get elected, they are precluded from the current partisan structure from having any power or say behind the scenes.

So what are us moderates to do?  Foremost, we in the center are the bridge builders, the ones who will potentially see the best aspects of both conservative and liberals, the ones that can bring the warring factions together for a greater common good.  Even at the extremes, there are fundamental ideas that are in common with both sides.  Quoting a friend: “A mutual idea is a common ground, a universal principle is a foundation, and, most importantly, a receptive and unbiased dialogue is an understanding…Find connections…Create bonds that will generate harmony and advance humanity.”  [7]  We must vote, even if the choices are suboptimal!  Failure to vote is failure to represent ourselves.  We need to filter out the polarized babble coming from the media and do our own due diligence in choosing candidates when we vote.  When the two parties do not pose acceptable candidates, fearlessly vote for an alternative candidate!  Even if it is viewed as “throwing away one’s vote,” it is in essence a vote for “none of the above.”  And perhaps an attractive centrist third party may gather enough votes to attain at least local legitimacy, which is where all national movements start.  All great things start from humble beginnings.

The alienated moderates need not give up hope.  We are the hope for the future of this country, the ones that will ultimately bring everyone including the political parties closer together in the hopes of solving the serious problems that currently face this country and our planet.  The future of our children as well as the very future of humanity depends on us.

References:

1.  Lane Kenworthy, “Polarized America,” http://www.u.arizona.edu/~lkenwor/indv102polarizedamerica.pdf

2.  Fareed Zakaria,  http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/07/24/why-political-polarization-has-gone-wild/

3.  Mickey Edwards,  http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2011/07/how-to-turn-republicans-and-democrats-into-americans/8521/

 

4.  Ibid.

5.  Konrad Yakabuski, http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/konrad-yakabuski/occupy-wall-street-v-tea-party-the-further-polarization-of-us-voters/article2196912/

6.  See [1].

7.  http://focusoninsight.blogspot.com/2011/10/polarization-of-america-interrupted.html?spref=fb

There is Much in the World

There is much in the world for us to be grateful for

The Universe has made it all

As our song now takes up sight and sounds of the earth

All voices shall be one

For the sound of the rain

For the fierce rushing waves

For water quiet and cool

We are blessed and thankful

In each droplet we see all your love and energy

For the warmth of a fire

For a blaze through the sky

For orange and yellow sparks

We are blessed and thankful

In each flicker we see all your love and energy

For the green of the earth

For the rich, leafy trees

For air that’s fresh and clean

We are blessed and thankful

Through each breath we feel all your love and energy

~Carson Coorman, paraphrased

A Haiku

Running in the rain

Forest smells waft through the air

Awaking the soul

What Happens When the Computers are Smarter than We Are? (reprint from April 7. 2011)

Since I have been alive, technology has been growing at an amazing rate.  The computing ability of electronics has been governed by “Moore’s Law,” in which the number of transistors on a computer chip doubles every 18 – 24 months.  Recently, Time Magazine published an article on computer superintelligence.   In this article, a project called The Blue Brain Project is described as “an attempt to create a neuron-by-neuron simulation of a mammalian brain, using IBM's Blue Gene super-computer.”  They have already simulated a neocortical column from a rat's brain and expect to have a human brain simulated in about 10 years.  In the same article, it is written that Raymond Kurzweil predicts that by 2045, computer intelligence would surpass humans.  This moment has been dubbed “The Singularity.”  It is even posited that humankind may achieve immortality.  [1]  What does this all mean?

Human intelligence has evolved over time and the question is whether or not it will continue to grow at a rate so as to not be caught by machine intelligence, assuming of course that machine intelligence will get there in the first place.  Eventually, though, organic boundaries would take hold, for instance, the speed at which communications happen in our brain is infinitesimal when compared to the speed of electrons in a circuit.  Yet, it’s possible that the human consciousness is too complicated and analog to be replicated by computers.   Biologist Dennis Bray: "Although biological components act in ways that are comparable to those in electronic circuits," he argued, in a talk titled "What Cells Can Do That Robots Can't," "they are set apart by the huge number of different states they can adopt. Multiple biochemical processes create chemical modifications of protein molecules, further diversified by association with distinct structures at defined locations of a cell. The resulting combinatorial explosion of states endows living systems with an almost infinite capacity to store information regarding past and present conditions and a unique capacity to prepare for future events." That makes the ones and zeros that computers trade in look pretty crude.” [2]

I believe, however, that given the current exponential growth of technology, superintelligent computers will be achieved.  “Kurzweil likes to point out that your average cell phone is about a millionth the size of, a millionth the price of and a thousand times more powerful than the computer he had at MIT 40 years ago. Flip that forward 40 years and what does the world look like?”  Once achieved, superintelligence will  not stop there.  In fact, superintelligent machines would take over the development of even higher intelligence, further accelerating its growth.  This is difficult to fathom because we are only aware of our current level of intelligence.  According to the Singularity Institute, trying to imagine what superhuman intelligence looks like is the same as chimps imagining what human intelligence looks like, or, people in the 1500s trying to imagine today’s technology.  [3]  To us, superintelligence would be magic, godlike.

How will these superintelligent entities behave?  Lev Grossman writes:  “Would that mean that the computer was sentient, the way a human being is?  Or would it just be an extremely sophisticated but essentially mechanical automaton without the mysterious spark of consciousness — a machine with no ghost in it? And how would we know?” [4]  How would a soulless intelligence act?  Whether or not a superintelligent machine has a soul, will they be good, evil, or both?  This may depend on who creates and/or controls the machine entity.  Now, what happens as these entities continue to evolve?  Will they have morality?  How do we program morality into them to prevent them from becoming evil and wiping out all life as we know it?

Then there is the question of the disruption of natural evolution.  Would a superintelligent machine “species” be happy with us and other species competing with it for limited resources?  Time:  “You don't have to be a super-intelligent cyborg to understand that introducing a superior life-form into your own biosphere is a basic Darwinian error.” [5]  It is clear that even if it has the best of intentions, machine superintelligence would be very disruptive to the natural order of things.  That being said, there is enough human evil in this world that evil superintelligence would also be created.  Can we prevent this from happening?  Certainly it would threaten the very existence of the human race.  Because of the great unknown of the behavior of a soulless superintelligent entity as well as the ever present factor of human evil, I see as the best way to manage this potentially catastrophic future development is to attempt to merge the organic human with the machine superintelligence.  In that way, our souls which are the Higher Power within us as well as our morality would mitigate the risks of launching an evil “superrace” into our midst.  For the future of our children, let us hope so.

This brings a second major development into play when the singularity is achieved: the possibility for immortality.  Assuming that we can successfully control machine superintelligence, the prospects for enormous life extension become possible.  Kurzweil suggests that biotechnology and nanotechology will allow us to engineer the human body to extend life indefinitely.  DNA could be literally reprogrammed.  [6]  Singularitarians, those who believe in and are preparing for The Singularity, believe that old age and death are just “diseases” that can be cured.  There are examples today of biological advances that support their view.  From the Singularity Institute web site: “…it's well known that one cause of the physical degeneration associated with aging involves telomeres, which are segments of DNA found at the ends of chromosomes. Every time a cell divides, its telomeres get shorter, and once a cell runs out of telomeres, it can't reproduce anymore and dies. But there's an enzyme called telomerase that reverses this process; it's one of the reasons cancer cells live so long. So why not treat regular non-cancerous cells with telomerase? In November, researchers at Harvard Medical School announced in Nature that they had done just that. They administered telomerase to a group of mice suffering from age-related degeneration. The damage went away. The mice didn't just get better; they got younger.”  [7]   Researchers at Berkley University as well as other universities are further studying this enzyme as a lifespan enhancer.  [8]

Given the exponential growth in intelligence, which will be applied to all scientific fields including biology, it may well be possible for the organic human form to solve the riddles of aging and death and to extend lifespan indefinitely.  Even if this is not achieved, it may be possible that a human being could integrate their mind into a machine superintelligence and continue life as a machine entity.  I argued earlier that this may be required in order to keep machine intelligence under control.  This, however, brings up more questions.  Lev Grossman writes: “If I can scan my intelligence into a computer, am I still me? What are the geopolitics and the socioeconomics of the Singularity? Who decides who gets to be immortal? Who draws the line between sentient and nonsentient? And as we approach immortality, omniscience and omnipotence, will our lives still have meaning? By beating death, will we have lost our essential humanity?”  I ask these very same questions and one additional one: if we “scan” our minds into a computer entity, does our soul also transfer to the machine or does it stay behind in the discarded organic shell to be liberated by death back to the spiritual realm?  This is the key question, for if the soul does not transfer, does that leave behind a soulless machine race that has no purpose or spiritual guidance?  And what kind of a world would that be?  Would that ironically be the extinction of the species Homo sapiens?  Or because all human souls would ultimately enter the spiritual realm, would that be the final rapture?

Finally, is immortality a good thing for humankind?  I contend not.  If we have forever to do anything, does anything get done?  What happens to art, music, literature, human relationship, vocation, and even the art of thought?  I predict everything would stagnate and life would become profoundly boring.  Why get out of bed, there is always tomorrow.  Another question is the impact of immortality on the limited resources of our planet or solar system.  If no one dies and babies are continually born, what happens to those resources?

If the organic form were still necessary, would machine intelligence discard it entirely because it no longer was useful, soul and all?  Is that our ultimate fate?  Finally, if death is extinguished, do we miss out completely on the experience of the spiritual realm? 

The only way I see that such a profound world-changing event may be managed is if the human race somehow is able to unite in common cause, as one entity.  The Dalai Lama: “In a world in which demographic growth and progress in communications have put us in very close contact with our neighbors, the very survival of humanity depends on our working together. That is why more than ever, we must look upon humanity as one entity. The problems that we face go beyond individuals and nations. We can only resolve them through an effort of shared responsibility.” [9]  By coming together before The Singularity, the issues of what happens to the soul, how to ensure that machine superintelligence is benevolent, and how to manage life extension without snuffing out the drive that is the amazing beauty of the human race may successfully be balanced and managed.

We only have 34 years to get it together.  Will we?

References:

1.         Lev Grossman, http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,2048138,00.html

2.         Ibid

3.         http://singinst.org/overview/whatisthesingularity/

4.         See [1]

5.         See [1]

6.         See [1]

7.         http://sciencematters.berkeley.edu/archives/volume6/issue46/story1.php

8.         See [3]

9.         https://www.facebook.com/DalaiLama

Diary Of A Runner III

 

On a spectacular Sunday afternoon, I went for a run in Mines Falls Park, our hometown park.  I love running in the fall – colors blazing in the trees, crisp cool air, sunlight sparkling off the river and millpond, no heat and humidity to slow me down.  Normally I turn on my music and zone out while I settle into a groove and the next thing I know, six miles are behind me and I am doing my cool-down exercises.  Lately I have been doing something different.  I leave the headphones behind, choosing silence instead.  Well, the park is not silent.  There are the sounds of wildlife – birds, croakers, crickets, squirrels and chipmunks scurrying around.  There are the sounds of cheering from a nearby soccer field.  And there are the greetings from fellow runners, cyclists, and walkers enjoying the park.  I still bring my phone with me and I ran the timer, but it wasn’t about running a fast time.  It was about relaxation…meditation…reconnecting with nature and the universe around me.  Doing something I have not been doing much of lately.  Why not?  Well, to summarize in one word, life.  Well, in actuality, work.

A few weeks ago, on another run, but this time with my daughter, I was explaining to her the wheel of life and how important it was to keep the seven spokes of the wheel in balance.  I learned of the wheel from Paul Brown of Leadership Dynamics, who was running a managerial effectiveness course for our organization.  The seven spokes, all equal to one another, are career, family, health, mental development, social (friends, clubs, giving to society), spiritual, and financial.  As I was explaining to her, it is important to have balance in all seven areas.  Neglecting just one area throws everything out of balance.  Or, overly focusing on one area causes the other areas to whither.  After a lively conversation about some of the concepts, she seemed to grasp the wheel and the importance of balance.  Ironically, I was paying little attention to my own balance at the time.

In looking back at the summer, my intense focus on our product launch as well as having to solve several major problems, some of which still remain unsolved, was throwing me out of balance.  I gave up my noonday meditation walks to squeeze in another half-hour of work.  I worked long hours into the evening and ended the day exhausted.  I still made it a point to spend time with family and friends, but had all but given up reading and writing, choosing instead to zone out.  Instead of running five times a week, I was running two or three.  I would find myself working on weekends rather than going to church and managing our investments.  I felt stressed out most of my waking hours.  Work was siphoning energy from the other aspects of my life, leading to disruption and unbalance.  Luckily, I have caught myself and have taken measures to restore my life balance. 

Bringing life back into balance is providing positive benefits all around, including at work.  Ironically, working fewer hours has improved my overall effectiveness at work, and we are making good progress in solving the problems threatening the product launch.  And I am happier as a result.  With gratitude, I head back to the park and embark on another Sunday run.  I not only feel the exhilarating crisp cool air, but more importantly, the warm Presence and life-giving energy that is always there when we tune out the distractions, quiet our minds, and open our souls.

Original photo - covered bridge over the Wissahickon Creek, Fairmont Park, Philadelphia, PA

Setting One's Intentions with the Universe…to Win the Powerball

Set your intentions with the universe and the universe will provide.  Or, set your intentions in the form of prayer and God will provide.  There are many variations of this sentiment and each faith has its own name for it.  There are prayers for healing, for peace, for wisdom, for the faithful departed, for better times.  There is spiritual channeling in the form of Reiki healing.  There are numerous documented cases where setting intentions or petitioning for healing has led to spontaneous recovery from terminal illness.  So as I walk to the supermarket counter to buy a Powerball ticket, I ask a simple question: can I set my intention with the universe so that my six numbers will perfectly align with the six numbered balls that bounce out of the machine tonight?

I’m sure if you talk to anyone knowledgeable about prayer that they would suggest that God considers that a frivolous prayer.  Well, is it really that frivolous?  When the Mega Millions drawing hit over $400 million a couple of weeks ago and I bought two tickets, it came to mind that $400 million is much more than I would ever need in order to live comfortably.  Let’s say that when that check hits the bank, I take $20,000,000 and invest it carefully, allowing my family and me to live comfortably for the rest of our lives and allow my daughter to go to the university of her choice.  That leaves $380,000,000, which is serious money.  That would do a considerable amount of good in the world.  I would donate it to charities that improve the education and well-being of our children, especially those who through financial hardship do not have access to a good education, or for that matter, to food and shelter.  The money could also be used to promote sustainability of our resources and to support technologies that allow industry to manufacture their products without damaging the planet.  It would help rebuild areas that have been ravaged by a natural disaster.  It would help find cures for cancer and other terrible diseases.  There are so many good causes in which to invest the money.  It would be a rewarding vocation.

Then the rational scientist in me takes over.  The odds of winning the Powerball jackpot are one in 175 million.  I’m more likely to be struck by lightning; the odds for that are about one in a million.  And the average payback on two dollar invested in Powerball is $1.00, or 50%.  I’m better off putting the two dollars in a piggy bank.  By doing that, I will have twice as much money on average as I would if I buy lottery tickets.  And it gets worse – if I win the big jackpot, I have to pay taxes on it!  Subtract another 40% or so depending on what state you live in.  Long story short: a Powerball ticket is a terrible investment - do not buy one!

And what happens to the money that is not paid out in prizes?  Many states advertise that the lottery proceeds go to good causes, for instance, to education or to the elderly.  However, a substantial amount of the lottery revenue comes from people who can ill afford to buy lottery tickets.  As reported by NBC, three Cornell economists found a strong correlation between lottery revenue and poverty rates.  [1]  Sadly, many people have a gambling addiction and spend money uncontrollably on lottery tickets that they need for food and shelter

Then why would I buy a lottery ticket?  “If I had a million dollars…...”   When I have my ticket, I buy that dream and anticipate eagerly the drawing of those very numbers that will make me a millionaire.  So now I have a better idea.  Certainly I can channel luck my way.  What if I set my intentions with the universe to win the jackpot and proceed to use the money for doing as much good as I can in the world?  Can’t I tilt the odds into my favor?  Sounds good in practice; however, what if everyone else sets their intentions with the universe to win the jackpot?  How does the universe deal with that?  Everyone can’t win – there is only one jackpot to split – and only $0.50 per dollar paid in.

Now I have completely talked myself out of the possibility of winning the jackpot.  In doing so, I have set my intentions with the universe.  So I will skip buying the ticket and put the two dollars in my piggybank.  And sleep soundly tonight.

[1] http://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/powerball-profits-dont-all-go-where-you-think-they-do-f1C7324290

A haiku

Run in the warm sun

Contemplate life’s mysteries

Sensing nature’s dance